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 USA Presidential Race 
 By Battleground States 

social media monitoring and sentiment analysis

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Week 9 - Final Election Report: Sentiment Findings Predict Popular Vote

After weeks of holding momentum in sentiment scores, Obama wins the race and faces high expectations to turn around the economy

During election week, President Obama continued to lead the social race in terms of volume and sentiment scores as he had for several weeks leading up to the election. After the election, Romney's Sentiment Score not only decreased, but the volume of conversations about him dropped significantly while Obama continued to improve in both categories.

With the economy being the most discussed issue throughout the election process, Obama will face high expectations to fulfill his promises of improving jobs and the economy in his upcoming term.

As we witnessed Obama gradually gaining momentum over the final weeks leading up the election, our findings were able to predict the popular vote results. If future candidates listen to social, they will be able to learn from this election and identify areas of opportunity to help change the results of their campaigns. 

Week 8: October 27, 2012 - November 2, 2012

"Jobs/Economy" returns to be the most discussed issue while Obama continues to lead the social race

In this week's report, "Foreign Policy" lost awareness in all eight states and dropped by 18.4% share of voice, while "Jobs/Economy" returned to be the most discussed issue after an increase of 9.7% share of voice. 

Obama led in sentiment across all eight states for the second week in a row. According to online conversations, he is believed to be the better candidate, especially for protecting the middle class and restoring the economy.

Romney's total sentiment score remained negative, bearing heavy criticism for shifting his company's (Bain Capital) jobs to China.

Will this foreshadow the results of the election? Follow the upcoming reports as we go through the voting process and results of the election to find out.

Week 7: October 20 - October 26, 2012

President Obama gains momentum in Week 6 lead over Romney 

In Week 7, President Obama saw an increase in volume and sentiment score (+1.0), holding a lead over Romney whose his score continued to decline (-4.8).

With foreign policy climbing back up in importance by 16.9%, Romney received negative feedback about his "reckless" foreign policy plans in several swing states while Obama instead was given praise for his. Obama will need to continue to work at restoring sentiment around jobs and the economy because the majority of his negative comments were concerning his performance of restoring the economy. With "Jobs/Economy" being such an important topic throughout the election, Romney may have a chance to gain his lead back.

Follow the daily and future weekly reports to see how the conversation changes as Obama handles Hurricane Sandy.

 

Week 6: October 13, 2012 - October 19, 2012

Protecting the Middle Class Becomes Increasingly Important in Week 6 Social Media Analysis

In this week's analysis of the presidential candidates, the issue of protecting the middle class increased in importance by 1.4% while "Jobs/Economy" continued to increase in importance by 9.2%. 

Obama only led in sentiment in Wisconsin and Ohio, but his total sentiment score increased slightly in all eight states by 1.1.

Romney led in volume in all eight states this week, with Florida leading the pack. His total sentiment score also improved in all eight states, and more so than Obama's improvement. Despite the negative sentiment around Romney following the Presidential Debate, he still is maintaining close competition with Obama. 

Week 5: October 6, 2012 - October 12, 2012

"Foreign Policy" and "Abortion/Choice" Become Increasingly Important Issues Following the VP Debates

The vice presidential debate made the issues "Abortion/Choice" and "Foreign Policy" boost in share of voice by 5.9% and 8.4% respectively, though "Jobs/Economy" still remained the most discussed issue of the election. 

This week, Obama led in volume of discussion in all 8 battleground states, but his overall sentiment score decreased by 5.4. Romney's overall sentiment score remained the same, which was slightly better than Obama's. However, he had no positive sentiment scores in any of the key states this week. 

While Obama's vice president may have won the vice presidential debate, the race still remains very close between Romney and Obama in the social space. 

Week 4: September 29 - October 5, 2012

Significant Sentiment Score Increase for Romney - A Result of the Debate?

In this week's Presidential Campaign Report, the results demonstrated a significant increase in sentiment towards Romney across several of the key swing states. This could validate the buzz that Romney won the presidential debate. It will be interesting to see in upcoming weeks whether or not he holds the increase in sentiment or if this fluctuation is temporary. 

Week 3: September 22 - September 28, 2012

Virginia's Focus On Foreign Policy - An Opportunity for Romney?

This week's report demonstrates how each state has their own story. The hot issue this week continued to be about jobs and the Economy, however some states were more interested in other issues. 

The buzz in Virginia showed an increase in sentiment around foreign policy, which might not come as a surprise with the Pentagon and number of military personnel. This week also marked an increase in sentiment score for Romney in Virginia. 

By listening to social, these candidates could identify more unique areas of opportunity.

Week 2: September 15 - September 21, 2012

The Economy Debate Leads Talk Again in Key Swing States

"Jobs/Economy" leads in share of voice across all states, though some issues trended higher in some states than others (i.e. "Abortion/Choice" saw the greatest pick-up in conversation around Ohio, while "Obamacare" saw the most traction in Colorado).

Discussions around the Libya attack decreased slightly this week which led to a drop of 12.9% in share of voice for the issue "Foreign Policy". And "Jobs/Economy" once again became the most discussed issue with 33.1% in share of voice. 

Week 1: September 8 - September 14, 2012

How Libyan Tragedy Impacts Favorable Sentiment for the President in FL, VA and NC

This week's report highlights the impact of the Libyan tragedy on favorable sentiment for the President in FL, VA and NC. Some of the highlights of the findings include:

Virginians focused their attention on the "Foreign Policy" issue. This was due to the Libya attack and increased tension in the Middle East. While "Foreign Policy" issue's share of voice increased by 52%, all other issues' dropped, especially "Jobs/Economy" (-21.7%).

 

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